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: / Strategies / Kyrgyz Republic Country Assistance Strategy (2003)




Kyrgyzstan Review, 10 years ago




Monitoring Results

A key element in monitoring will be for the Bank Group to establish intermediate monitorable benchmarks for the CAS, linked to both the governments goals and those of the MDGs. IDA will judge the success of the CAS through its ability to help the Kyrgyz Republic achieve its targets as noted in Table 7 below.
 
A second element in IDA assistance will be to assist the Kyrgyz Republic strengthening its system of information monitoring and evaluation as part of implementing the NPRS. Such a system should be based on generating information in the most cost effective manner, through the National Statistics Agency and the Line Ministries. It should also be linked to developing appropriate national versions of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). IDA will support the Governments efforts to move to this approach through: (i) a PRSP Trust Fund Grant, (ii) the Governance Technical Assistance Project, (iii) continued dialogue with NatStatCom through Poverty Work, and (iv) support to the Ministries of Education, Health and Labor and Social Protection through ongoing and planned projects and dialogue. IDAs support will also be complemented by support from DFID to the National Statistics Agency. IDA also plans to make the FY03 PER and follow-up work a key element in monitoring progress, with a particular emphasis on tracking whether resources reach the intended beneficiaries.
 
A third aspect to monitoring will be the active development and refinement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) into the Kyrgyz Republic context. The UN country team has primary responsibility for assessing progress towards meeting MDGs. At the same time, progress towards meeting MDGs is closely related to progress under the NPRS, which IDA will need to closely monitor if it is to move towards a programmatic approach. There are a number of data issues, including on health, education, and overall poverty monitoring, where IDA has already or intends to play a leadership role. This will include ensuring that statistics are reliable and easily monitored in a cost effective manner. To this end, IDA plans to work closely during the CAS period with the UN (and in particular the UNDP and UNICEF) and the Government (through the CDF secretariat, the National Statistics Committee, and the line ministries) in refining work on the MDGs.
 
Table 7: Core CAS Monitorable Benchmarks
 
Objective
Key Goals 1/
(from 1999 to 2005)
Intermediate Indicators
Poverty Reduction
(overall objective)
Poverty Headcount to decline from 55 percent to 39 percent
Improvement in reliability of national poverty statistics and clear link with policy decisions.
 
Steady progress in meeting NPRS targets as evidenced by the Annual Progress report, including a reduction in poverty by about 2-3 percent per year.
 
Stimulating Growth
 
Debt to decline from 134 percent of GDP to 78 percent of GDP
 
GDP to be 29 percent above 1999 level by 2005
 
 
Reduction in externally financed Public Investment Program levels to below 4 percent of GDP by 2005 and steady progress towards debt sustainability.
 
Reduction in barriers to SME growth including unnecessary inspections and licensing measured through business surveys and roundtables, and the proposed FINBUS project.
 
Growth in Agro-processing (measured through the proposed Agriculture Modernization and Marketing Project).
 
Improving Service Delivery
Primary education coverage to increase from 89 percent to 97 percent
 
Under 5 child mortality to decline from 35.5 in to 28.0 (per 1000 live births)
 
Mortality from infectious diseases to decline (per 100,000) from 33 to 25
 
Mainstreaming the health pilots as measured through the ongoing Health II Project 
 
Establishment of an acceptable education strategy jointly with the Government and other partners 
 
Increase in cash-based funding for the social sectors (education, health, and social protection)  
 
 
Improving Governance
 
 
 
Improve efficiency, transparency, and fiduciary controls in the Government 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Empower local communities 
Introduction of civil service reform and tighten fiduciary controls successfully through GSAC/GTAC. This would include annual disclosure of assets and incomes of high level civil servants.
 
Improvement in service delivery and corruption incidence as measured by a follow-up survey to the FY03 governance and service delivery survey.
 
Steady reduction in quasi-fiscal operations to below 5% of GDP by the end of the CAS period.
 
Increase in the use of local governments and communities to deliver services and infrastructure (measured through the VIP and Small Town Infrastructure Projects).
 
Goals in bold are identified in the list of key monitoring statistics from the NPRS. Some differences exist between these indicators and projections and IDAs indicators and projections which will be clarified during the CAS period.