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Kyrgyzstan Review, 10 years ago

[20.06.2OO2] Raging South, sleeping North. A.Chekoshev

Today it is difficult to imagine Kyrgyzstan without foreign aid. Officialdom has strongly saddled all business directions. It remains only to wonder at stableness and vitality of business in the country. It is necessary to give President his due: political fundraising, in which the head of state has succeeded, became a guiding star for many domestic NGO leaders. And for all that another is surprising. Having learned about honorariums and amounts of grants received by not governmental organizations, the authority offended with their criticism has begun to accuse their leaders of political extremism unleashed on foreign resources.
Authority has not been confused with the fact that state budget, composed of credits and grants on 40 %, is formed from the same sources. The political struggle, which was destiny of authority and irreconcilable opposition, has ceased to be their internal business. People, looking at it stilly, have begun to think about the reasons of their own poverty. At that time, considering himself a petrel of coming crisis, one of the opposition leaders, by the way, who is also not poor man, having given early false start, was crushed cruelly by power of the State machinery. Such cruelty forced prudent business representatives to recede from participation in serious political processes. Deputy mandates were a summit of their aspirations. But owing to the deprivation of immunity of a deputy, deputy mandates lost a lion's share of their appeal.
Fortunately for President, after Batken events, by the way, allowing to appeal to world community for help time and again, the September 11 burst. Kyrgyzstan has got an opportunity for participation within its power (territorial coupled with blether) in an antiterrorist coalition. The real chance to prove to pragmatic Russia own geopolitical value has appeared. A giving the main countrys airport for air base has put Russia, which has confined to tactics of nonviolent integration towards Kyrgyzstan before now, on its guard. And only when temporary presence of the international military contingent threatened to become permanent, Russia began to undertake desperate steps on return of the lost positions. As long as yesterday poor Russia seemingly being shot of resources for distinct policy in Central Asia, has ceased to yield to Americans in number of political contacts and even surpassed them in some things.
Whirligig of visits within the framework of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization), the Collective Security Treaty (CST), bilateral agreements, and simply with the purpose of development of cultural connections, has forced to put now US, thinking of itself on account of amount of money injections as a main stockholder of the state, on its guard. Russia has achieved in the short time almost the same result as USA, but for all that spending the immeasurably lesser sums. In response, USA has begun to carry out the stick and the carrot policy more and more distinct. If before overseas money was given to authority and oppositions on a democracy showcase, this time the treat of direct financing of opposition has began to increase
After resignation of the cabinet and charismatic head of Presidents office, new Presidents idea from the old dictionary about the announcement Kyrgyzstan a country of human rights, on short time gave rise to the peoples hope that President abides by democratic principles peculiar to him at the beginning of his government.
However, next steps, which are formation of the new government, and conviction of Beknazarov by the court of first instance, have given the basis to speak about an invariability of Presidents policy. The announced dialogue with countrys political forces, necessarily with the opposition, turned out nothing more than an attempt to win time with the hope for its curative characteristics. Today, in search of the truth Aksy people are ready to fight to the last, and pedestrian march to Jalal-Abad in spite of cloudburst corroborates it. Undoubtedly, it was necessary to look into the reasons of firmness of the Aksy people, but the fact that Russia in the person of its force ministers and Security Council allows to speak about existence of the external forces interested in conflict promotion and also about its support to the present President in struggle against opposition, testifies that the situation in Kyrgyzstan gets out of internal control.
USA and Russia interest in domination in our region and their concernment particular in Kyrgyzstan as a most compliant "partner" can bring to the processes destabilizing situation in the country with the following break-up of the state In the meantime, it is possible to stop the process of state disintegration only under nation consolidation in the presence of state ideology developed following a national dialogue. Unfortunately, there is neither element in Kyrgyzstan. In fact, and effective steps on it realization from the direction of authority are not observed. The relative calmness in North shouldnt dump authoritys ardor as the processes like mass riots are spontaneous in many respects. Taking into account that there are not many leaders capable of calling population to order, starting of dangerously explosive mechanism of the populations protest activity is unwanted.
Probably, attention should be paid on an attempt of the not governmental sector to conduct the first Forum of the civil leaders, where the ways of solution of political crisis will be agreed in detail perhaps for the last time. If it is not a success, not only hot summer, but also hot autumn expects us. What can be discussed at this Forum? It is clear, question of opposition representation in the power. Reasoning from the real influence of opposition, it already today has a right to pretend to a post of one or two vice-premiers. Another question requiring discussion is a question about ways of depression overcoming. Monopolization of all forms of economic life, artificial limitation of competition coupled with various barriers on the ways of small and middle business have webbed countrys economy.
Interests of separate officials groups combining a public service with commercial interest come out everywhere and all over. The last brings to nothing all declared Government efforts on poverty reduction.
It is a pity, but, it seems that the authority has aimed to cognize completely the destructive sincerity of opposition, to determine the true sizes of opposition influence on population. At the conditions of prevailing poverty an opportunities of irreversibility of subsequent political processes are obvious prospect. It is counted on the force. But militia polling says about unwillingness of the last to shoot at own people. And such result has become possible even without opposition propaganda in the force structures. Of course, even after all of these it cannot be said that the authority has exhausted itself.
The strength of the present authority is concealed partly in population unwillingness to see irreconcilable opposition, whose destructive charge, in opinion of many people, can only precipitate the state break-up, at the helm. Those contradictions, which are available in the society, should find their solution. It is necessary to liberate economy, to give equal opportunities to the representatives of the South and North to be presented at all levels of public service. It is necessary to return the balance between branches of power, to give powers to the Government, to deliver courts from tutelage of the executive power. All of these are decidable in the presence of political will. It is time to stop gratify hearing with words denied in practice. It is difficult to say how the opposition is candid in its words, but the fact that declaring good purposes, authority frequently realizes opposite, deprives itself of peoples confidence. While North sleeps, there is a time still.
Obshestvenniy Reiting, June 20, 2002

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